A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
